The economy has officially surpassed pre-pandemic levels after the sharpest recession and recovery in history. Unfortunately, this same swiftness also left some investors unprepared as markets recovered last year and scratching their heads as markets reach new all-time highs this year. More than ever, it's important that long-term investors focus on the entire business cycle as they manage their portfolios.
Remember how the S&P 500 dropped almost 20% during Q1 2020? How scary that felt and how uncertain we felt about COVID-19 and its impact on our economy and our lives? Compared to the state of the markets a year ago, a 6% gain in the S&P 500 last quarter feels like a return to "normalcy". But the past year has been a reminder that volatility IS NORMAL.
As Election Day approaches, we wanted to provide historic market perspective. Historically markets have had little response to presidential party affiliation after one year in office. And while investors are often concerned about the turmoil election years can create, the actual market performance varies by less than 4%.
2020 has been a whirlwind of Coronavirus news and its impact not only on our daily lives, but also the economy and the stock market. Other than the virus itself, a defining feature of the pandemic has been record breaking volatility; the measure of both positive and negative market movement. The challenge of such dramatic swings is that selling after the worst days of a volatile period means you are more likely to miss one of the best days on the upswing.
2019 closed with strong returns across most asset classes, with US REITs being the weakest performer in Q4 after being the strongest in Q3! This kind of performance reversal is par for the course when looking at investments in the short term. Part of being able to avoid responding to emotion during periods of uncertainty is having an appropriate asset allocation that is aligned with your willingness and ability to bear risk. However, as with many aspects of life, we can all benefit from a bit of help in reaching our goals.